The penance for a delay of the hike is a much steeper hike...that's the balance the market's been playing with, the longer the fed stays on hold, the more risk there is that factors like inflation will build up.
It's likely to impact yields everywhere, when you put this much stimulus into the markets, it's going to go other places that you hadn't intended, and one of those places is going to be u.s. Debt.
Right now the market's been pricing for december and the fed's been pushing more of a narrative that we think suggests september, so we're more likely to see the fed converge here to the market than the other way around.
